Home lending sinks to GFC depths

By Gavin R. Putland

In proportion to GDP, lending for acquisition of established homes for owner-occupation is almost back to the minimum of Q3, 2008, while lending to individuals for acquisition of investment homes has fallen through the 2008 minimum to its lowest level since Q2 of 2001. The blue and purple curves in the following graph (3rd and 2nd from the bottom) tell the story.^†

Three caveats should be noted:

• In the graph, the points plotted for Q1 of 2011 are based on one months' data.

• The lending figures released by the ABS, unlike the corresponding mortgage resale figures released by AFG last month (www.sejz6.tk), do not show a fall in every state. Hence one could more plausibly blame the January floods for the ABS figures than for the AFG figures.

• The AFG figures for February show a recovery, but are still down by 9.7 percent year-on-year.

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^† The sources for the graph are listed in the endnotes to the post of Nov.11.