Home lending sinks to 10-year low against GDP

A brief update by Gavin R. Putland

Last month, on the basis of one month's “housing finance” figures for Q1 of 2011, I reported that:

In proportion to GDP, lending for acquisition of established homes for owner-occupation is almost back to the minimum of Q3, 2008, while lending to individuals for acquisition of investment homes has fallen through the 2008 minimum to its lowest level since Q2 of 2001.

Now that we have another month's figures, it would appear that in Q1 of 2011, “lending for acquisition of established homes for owner-occupation” in proportion to GDP likewise fell through the GFC minimum — to the lowest level since Q4 of 2000. And yes, the figures are seasonally adjusted.

While construction of new homes rose 1 percent (seasonally adjusted) from January to February, the number of purchases of new dwellings simultaneously fell 12 percent, suggesting that the new stock will be hard to sell.